15181 Van Buren Blvd #243

Woodcrest, CA 92504

$299,950D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,940 sqft · Built 1983 · Manufactured · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,579/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$500
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $-35/mo
• Annual: $-424/yr
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.51%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $83,986

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-424/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (14.0% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $258k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#518 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities F.
• Riverside Unified (urban): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #574 of 1,400 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 90 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.2% in Woodcrest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.