556 Macintosh Cir

Joppatowne, MD 21085

$277,500D-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 1999 · Townhouse · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,224/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,455
• Tax + insurance: −$297
• HOA: −$70
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-65/mo
• Annual: $-784/yr
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.01%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $77,700

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $278k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-784/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (19.9% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $222k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#177 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime D+, amenities F.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Joppatowne Elementary (math 10% / reading 13%, grade F, #567 of 860 statewide, top 67%, 501 students, 68% FRL); Magnolia Middle (math 4% / reading 28%, grade F, #183 of 225 statewide, top 84%, 730 students, 78% FRL); Joppatowne High (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #126 of 222 statewide, top 57%, 833 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 24% district-wide (48 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 139 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $214k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.0% in Joppatowne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.