621 Avenue Y

New York, NY 11235

$949,000F

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,697 sqft · Built 1945 · MultiFamily · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,488/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,977
• Tax + insurance: −$977
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,572
• Net cashflow: $-38/mo
• Annual: $-457/yr
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.17%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $265,720

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $949k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-457/yr) — negative. Per door: $-19/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $942k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $749k (21.1% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($935k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $749k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 521 active listings in the ZIP; 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $7,488/mo this rent would consume 151% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 7823% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?