53 Heritage Blvd

Longview, WA 98632

$134,900B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Active · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,750/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax + insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $450/mo
• Annual: $5,404/yr
• Cap rate: 10.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.31%
• DSCR: 1.64
• 1% rule: 1.30%
• Cash to close: $37,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $450 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#228 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, commute F.
• Longview School District (urban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #185 of 291 in WA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 356 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 348 units permitted in Cowlitz County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cowlitz County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 9 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $135k implies a 275% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.0% in Longview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.