304 Clayton Ave

Hagerman, NM 88232

$125,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 285 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Active · 455 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $891/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$187
• Net cashflow: $-160/mo
• Annual: $-1,918/yr
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.48%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-160 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $102k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $89k (28.7% below list).
• It's been on market 455 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $89k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#185 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Zoned schools: Hagerman Elementary (180 students, 100% FRL); Hagerman Middle (74 students, 100% FRL); Hagerman High (114 students, 97% FRL).
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 88 units permitted in Chaves County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 455 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.