6378 Gulf Winds Dr

St. Pete Beach, FL 33706

$748,000C+

15 bd · 9.0 ba · 1,598 sqft · Built 1947 · MultiFamily · Active · 240 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $8,853/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,923
• Tax + insurance: −$1,673
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,859
• Net cashflow: $1,398/mo
• Annual: $16,777/yr
• Cap rate: 9.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.45%
• DSCR: 1.47
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $209,440

Investor read

• This is a 3 × 5-bed/3.0-bath units multifamily listed at $748k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive. Per door: $466/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $748k).
• It's been on market 240 days — a 12% lower offer ($658k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $658k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Azalea Elementary School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 507 students, 60% FRL); Azalea Middle School (math 26% / reading 27%, grade F, #503 of 571 statewide, top 88%, 678 students, 74% FRL); Boca Ciega High School (math 24% / reading 33%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,423 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 48% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pinellas average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 618 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 1.0% in St. Pete Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $8,853/mo this rent would consume 102% of the median local household income ($104k/yr) (locally 552% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 240 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.