18526 Athena Flower Dr

Fresno, TX 77545

$370,635D

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,239 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,289/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,053
• Tax + insurance: −$1,079
• HOA: −$54
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$691
• Net cashflow: $-588/mo
• Annual: $-7,055/yr
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.77%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $109,612

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $371k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-588 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $329k (11.3% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $306k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#943 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blue Ridge El (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,180 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 263 students, 89% FRL); Christa Mcauliffe Middle (math 9% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 835 students, 94% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 35% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 13% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-35 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?