4801 Agnes Cir

Carter, TX 76082

$228,780D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,160 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Active · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,191/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,200
• Tax + insurance: −$554
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-24/mo
• Annual: $-282/yr
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.44%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $64,058

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-282/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (4.2% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $219k (4.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Springtown ISD (town): math 36% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #435 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Springtown Middle (math 33% / reading 45%, grade F, #690 of 1,662 statewide, top 42%, 628 students, 50% FRL); Springtown H S (math 38% / reading 47%, grade F, #721 of 1,632 statewide, top 45%, 1,182 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 519 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.5% in Carter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.