3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,451 sqft ·
Built 1956
· Townhouse
· Pending
· 8 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,476/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,426
Tax + insurance
−$396
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$520
Net cashflow
$133/mo
Annual
$1,596/yr
Cap rate
6.88%
Cash-on-cash
2.10%
DSCR
1.09
1% rule
0.91%
Cash to close
$76,160
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $272k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $133 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (9.0% below list).
Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $248k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 86/100 on livability (#11 in MD, #338 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living F.
Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Hampton Elementary (math 33% / reading 45%, grade F, #113 of 860 statewide, top 13%, 773 students, 44% FRL); Dumbarton Middle (math 21% / reading 55%, grade F, #31 of 225 statewide, top 15%, 1,073 students, 32% FRL); Towson High (math 40% / reading 75%, grade C, #79 of 222 statewide, top 35%, 1,676 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 24% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Baltimore County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.2% in Towson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-P6Q8JH55RR5VKJ
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29