22906 Skila

Sandy Oaks, TX 78112

$104,900B

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,848 sqft · Built 1996 · Manufactured · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,295/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax + insurance: −$226
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $247/mo
• Annual: $2,967/yr
• Cap rate: 9.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.10%
• DSCR: 1.45
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $29,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $247 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $103k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $552 of equity ($725 loan paydown + $-173 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,356 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Southside ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #771 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Freedom El (math 15% / reading 26%, grade F, #3,515 of 4,322 statewide, top 82%, 562 students, 93% FRL); Southside H S (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,685 students, 85% FRL).
• Market conditions: 442 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.2% in Sandy Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.