1205 Mariposa Ave #402

Coral Gables, FL 33146

$460,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,117 sqft · Built 1970 · Condo · Pending · 215 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $9,419/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,412
• Tax + insurance: −$945
• HOA: −$803
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,978
• Net cashflow: $3,281/mo
• Annual: $39,373/yr
• Cap rate: 14.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.57%
• DSCR: 2.36
• 1% rule: 2.05%
• Cash to close: $128,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $460k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($39k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $460k).
• It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($405k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $405k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#31 in FL, #646 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: George W. Carver Elementary School (math 72% / reading 77%, grade A, #230 of 2,144 statewide, top 12%, 566 students, 28% FRL); Ponce De Leon Middle School (math 36% / reading 55%, grade D+, #305 of 571 statewide, top 54%, 888 students, 60% FRL); Coral Gables Senior High School (math 31% / reading 53%, grade F, #275 of 667 statewide, top 42%, 2,824 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 64% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 105 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $460k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $129k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 0.6% in Coral Gables — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $9,419/mo this rent would consume 86% of the median local household income ($132k/yr) (locally 857% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.