676 Turnberry Ter

Rio Vista, CA 94571

$224,950D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,139 sqft · Built 2001 · SingleFamily · Pending · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,085/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$428
• HOA: −$289
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-249/mo
• Annual: $-2,987/yr
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.74%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $62,986

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-249 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (19.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (7.3% below list).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $181k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#973 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• River Delta Joint Unified (town): math 31% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #810 of 1,400 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 183 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,472 units permitted in Solano County in 2024 (131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Solano County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.2% in Rio Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.