12 Colwick Dr Dr

Somers Point, NJ 08244

$430,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,174 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 190 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,927/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax + insurance: −$849
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-1,582/mo
• Annual: $-18,980/yr
• Cap rate: 1.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.76%
• DSCR: 0.30
• 1% rule: 0.45%
• Cash to close: $120,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $430k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (62.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (55.2% below list).
• It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $161k (62.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#314 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living D, schools D-.
• Somers Point School District (suburban): math 9% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #423 of 472 in NJ (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $38k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $360k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.9% vs local median 2.8% in Somers Point — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 63% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.