11705 Parey Ave #39

Proberta, CA 96080

$39,990B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1970 · Manufactured · Active · 247 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,232/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax + insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $608/mo
• Annual: $7,293/yr
• Cap rate: 28.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.55%
• DSCR: 4.50
• 1% rule: 3.08%
• Cash to close: $11,197

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $608 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 247 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 37/100 on livability (#1,425 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lassen View Union Elementary (rural): math 47% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #142 of 517 in CA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 262 active listings in the ZIP; 186 units permitted in Tehama County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tehama County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 247 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.