914 Pine Ridge Dr

Lakeland, FL 33809

$139,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1979 · Manufactured · Active · 96 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,542/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax + insurance: −$232
• HOA: −$292
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $-35/mo
• Annual: $-418/yr
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.07%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $38,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-418/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $133k (4.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sleepy Hill Elementary School (math 44% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,454 of 2,144 statewide, top 69%, 739 students, 66% FRL); Sleepy Hill Middle School (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 1,090 students, 66% FRL); Lake Gibson Senior High School (math 16% / reading 38%, grade F, #478 of 667 statewide, top 73%, 2,080 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 263 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.