675 Koehler Rd

Vadnais Heights, MN 55127

$329,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,714 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Pending · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,358/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax + insurance: −$481
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-348/mo
• Annual: $-4,172/yr
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.52%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $92,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-348 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (18.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (28.5% below list).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $236k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#280 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• White Bear Lake School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #83 of 301 in MN (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 135 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $171k; list at $330k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.0% in Vadnais Heights — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.