2708 Dillion Dr

Abram, TX 78572

$189,900F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 2025 · Manufactured · Active · 182 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,080/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$159
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $-302/mo
• Annual: $-3,622/yr
• Cap rate: 4.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.81%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-302 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (28.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (43.1% below list).
• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (43.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,272 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• La Joya ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #759 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Guillermo Flores El (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 434 students, 93% FRL); Cesar Chavez Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 666 students, 90% FRL); La Joya H S (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 2,775 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 54% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 852 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.