237 Midland Cir

Bristol, VA 24201

$75,000B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 658 sqft · Built 1901 · SingleFamily · Pending · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $801/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$168
• Net cashflow: $184/mo
• Annual: $2,206/yr
• Cap rate: 9.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.51%
• DSCR: 1.47
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $184 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($801 rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#140 in VA, #4,544 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment F.
• Bristol City Public School District (urban): math 57% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #53 of 131 in VA (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15 units permitted in Bristol city in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bristol County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $63k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.9% in Bristol — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.