35 Fairharbor Dr #35

Patchogue, NY 11772

$290,000F

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1970 · Condo · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,419/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax + insurance: −$550
• HOA: −$1,061
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $-1,220/mo
• Annual: $-14,643/yr
• Cap rate: 1.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.05%
• DSCR: 0.24
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $81,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (16.6% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $242k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#108 in NY, #1,800 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District (suburban): math 83% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #73 of 590 in NY (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: River Elementary School (math 75%, 300 students, 47% FRL); South Ocean Middle School (math 75%, 599 students, 57% FRL); Patchogue-Medford High School (math 89% / reading 67%, grade A-, #577 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 2,443 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 35% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 44% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $290k implies a 353% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.5% vs local median 3.4% in Patchogue — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?