102 NE 138th St

Cross City, FL 32628

$139,966D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 82 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,020/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$153
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $-81/mo
• Annual: $-976/yr
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.49%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $39,190

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-81 ($-976/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (27.2% below list).
• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $102k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#412 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Dixie (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #36 of 73 in FL (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: James M. Anderson Elementary School (math 58% / reading 53%, grade C, #855 of 2,144 statewide, top 41%, 382 students, 78% FRL); Dixie County High School (math 31% / reading 42%, grade F, #351 of 667 statewide, top 54%, 714 students, 70% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Dixie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dixie County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.1% in Cross City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.