4 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,700 sqft ·
Built 1970
· SingleFamily
· Under Contract
· 135 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,527/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$702
Tax + insurance
−$146
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$321
Net cashflow
$358/mo
Annual
$4,300/yr
Cap rate
9.50%
Cash-on-cash
11.47%
DSCR
1.51
1% rule
1.14%
Cash to close
$37,492
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $134k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $358 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $134k).
It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $118k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $926 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#145 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Jonesboro School District (urban): math 28% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #169 of 238 in AR (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Kindergarten Center (503 students, 100% FRL); Annie Camp Jr. High School (math 22% / reading 34%, grade F, #150 of 201 statewide, top 76%, 784 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 67% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 304 active listings in the ZIP; 926 units permitted in Craighead County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
Craighead County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $83k; list at $134k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.4% in Jonesboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29