1718 W Toltec Dr

Coolidge, AZ 85128

$250,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,914/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$260
• HOA: −$45
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-104/mo
• Annual: $-1,246/yr
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.78%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-104 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (23.5% below list).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $191k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#235 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Coolidge Unified District (4442) (town): math 8% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #229 of 249 in AZ (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Heartland Ranch Elementary School (math 10% / reading 20%, grade F, #871 of 1,109 statewide, top 80%, 525 students, 84% FRL); Coolidge Jr. High School (math 7% / reading 11%, grade F, #200 of 218 statewide, top 93%, 362 students, 80% FRL); Coolidge High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 640 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 272 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.5% in Coolidge — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.