340 Horse Creek Dr #307

Naples, FL 34110

$269,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,326 sqft · Built 1990 · Condo · Active · 180 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,803/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax + insurance: −$463
• HOA: −$959
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $-618/mo
• Annual: $-7,421/yr
• Cap rate: 3.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.79%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $75,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $269k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-618 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (40.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $269k).
• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (40.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Naples Park Elementary School (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 395 students, 48% FRL); North Naples Middle School (math 79% / reading 73%, grade A, #34 of 571 statewide, top 6%, 903 students, 25% FRL); Gulf Coast High School (math 57% / reading 68%, grade B-, #93 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,447 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 55% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 34% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 738 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 117d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $123k; list at $269k implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 2.4% in Naples — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?