199 Ridge Rd

Wheatley Heights, NY 11798

$499,900C

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,612 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,999/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax + insurance: −$1,141
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $187/mo
• Annual: $2,239/yr
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.60%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $139,972

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $500k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $187 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $500k).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#275 in NY, #4,351 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety D-.
• Half Hollow Hills Central School District (suburban): math 79% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #41 of 590 in NY (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sunquam Elementary School (math 66% / reading 67%, grade B+, #575 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 503 students, 18% FRL); West Hollow Middle School (math 71% / reading 69%, grade A, #86 of 729 statewide, top 12%, 969 students, 22% FRL); Half Hollow Hills High School West (math 100% / reading 98%, grade A+, #7 of 1,100 statewide, top 1%, 1,055 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.