20739 Lycoming St

Diamond Bar, CA 91789

$155,000B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 4,036 sqft · Built 1980 · Land · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,847/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax + insurance: −$258
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $1,178/mo
• Annual: $14,134/yr
• Cap rate: 15.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.57%
• DSCR: 2.45
• 1% rule: 1.84%
• Cash to close: $43,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $155k).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#86 in CA, #3,131 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, schools A-; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Walnut Valley Unified (suburban): math 74% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #32 of 517 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 141 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 2.1% in Diamond Bar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.