3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,568 sqft ·
Built 1978
· Manufactured
· Active
· 37 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,935/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$917
Tax + insurance
−$231
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$406
Net cashflow
$380/mo
Annual
$4,558/yr
Cap rate
8.90%
Cash-on-cash
9.31%
DSCR
1.41
1% rule
1.11%
Cash to close
$48,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $380 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 82/100 on livability (#67 in FL, #1,139 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D, employment F.
Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: River Ridge High School (math 50% / reading 54%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 1,802 students, 41% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 305 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
10 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $48k; list at $175k implies a 264% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 2.0% in New Port Richey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $1,935/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 1439% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-PCC97ABAKT6TNB
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29