2 Sunset Rd

North Haven, NY 11963

$2,095,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,430 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Pending · 220 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $23,322/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,986
• Tax + insurance: −$3,492
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,898
• Net cashflow: $3,946/mo
• Annual: $47,353/yr
• Cap rate: 8.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.07%
• DSCR: 1.36
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $586,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $2.10M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($47k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($23k rent vs $2.10M).
• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.84M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.84M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $207k of equity ($14k loan paydown + $192k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#978 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute D-, cost of living F.
• Sag Harbor Union Free School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #175 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 65 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $2.10M implies a 2394% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (9.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $587k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$332k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $23,322/mo this rent would consume 219% of the median local household income ($128k/yr) (locally 95% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.