3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,196 sqft ·
Built 1962
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 2 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,185/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$917
Tax + insurance
−$375
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$249
Net cashflow
$-356/mo
Annual
$-4,272/yr
Cap rate
3.85%
Cash-on-cash
-8.72%
DSCR
0.61
1% rule
0.68%
Cash to close
$48,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-356 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $112k (36.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (32.2% below list).
Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $112k (36.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#270 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
Peoria SD 150 (urban): math 11% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #554 of 620 in IL (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Valeska Hinton Early Ch Ed Ctr (495 students, 0% FRL); Reservoir Gifted School (math 79% / reading 82%, grade A+, #2 of 665 statewide, top 0%, 277 students, 0% FRL); Richwoods High School (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #152 of 693 statewide, top 22%, 1,580 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 70% district-wide (70 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 56% at this address vs 12% district-wide (+44 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Peoria SD 150 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.3%/yr); 154 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 73 units permitted in Peoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Peoria County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 5.5% in Peoria — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-PCM15H1HQJ483Z
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29