5235 Lexington Ave

Jacksonville, FL 32210

$184,999D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,257 sqft · Built 1953 · SingleFamily · Active · 160 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,620/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$311
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $-2/mo
• Annual: $-20/yr
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-20/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (12.4% below list).
• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Grasp Academy (math 18% / reading 14%, grade F, #2,130 of 2,144 statewide, top 99%, 271 students, 52% FRL); Lake Shore Middle School (math 25% / reading 22%, grade F, #536 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 972 students, 75% FRL); Riverside High School (math 24% / reading 39%, grade F, #424 of 667 statewide, top 64%, 1,567 students, 60% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 441 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $185k implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.