4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,309 sqft ·
Built 1917
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 51 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,873/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,285
Tax + insurance
−$170
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$393
Net cashflow
$25/mo
Annual
$300/yr
Cap rate
6.42%
Cash-on-cash
0.44%
DSCR
1.02
1% rule
0.76%
Cash to close
$68,600
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $25 ($300/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (23.6% below list).
It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $187k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#503 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Duplin County Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #153 of 178 in NC (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Beulaville Elementary (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #897 of 1,410 statewide, top 64%, 822 students, 100% FRL); East Duplin High (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #334 of 535 statewide, top 64%, 861 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 74% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 28% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Duplin County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 134 units permitted in Duplin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Duplin County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (3.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.5% in Beulaville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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