1614 12th Ave SE

St. Cloud, MN 56304

$245,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,022 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,291/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$468
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $57/mo
• Annual: $678/yr
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.99%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($678/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (6.5% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $229k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Cloud Public School District (urban): math 27% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #264 of 301 in MN (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Talahi Community Elementary (563 students, 84% FRL); South Junior High (math 24% / reading 37%, grade F, #192 of 258 statewide, top 77%, 867 students, 73% FRL); Technical Senior High (math 27% / reading 46%, grade F, #298 of 471 statewide, top 63%, 1,515 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 48% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 116 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 334 units permitted in Sherburne County in 2024 (58 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $210k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.9% in St. Cloud — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,291/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1175% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.