1205 Mehle St

Arabi, LA 70032

$4,450,000F

None bd · 75.0 ba · 57,600 sqft · Built 1974 · Townhouse · Active · 478 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $0/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$23,336
• Tax + insurance: −$2,833
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$0
• Net cashflow: $-26,169/mo
• Annual: $-314,033/yr
• Cap rate: -0.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -25.14%
• DSCR: -0.12
• 1% rule: 0.00%
• Cash to close: $1,246,000

Investor read

• This is a ?-bed/75.0-bath townhouse listed at $4.45M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26k ($-314k/yr) — negative.
• Rent doesn't cover operating costs at any purchase price — skip.
• It's been on market 478 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.92M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $3.92M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $31k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $134k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#45 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in St. Bernard Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Bernard County population projected at +89% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $240k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $2.00M; list at $4.45M implies a 123% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate -0.7% vs local median 5.3% in Arabi — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 478 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?