8196 W Grubstake St

Boise City, ID 83709

$515,000D+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,646 sqft · Built 2008 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,750/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,701
• Tax + insurance: −$346
• HOA: −$25
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$788
• Net cashflow: $-109/mo
• Annual: $-1,304/yr
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.90%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $144,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $515k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $496k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $375k (27.2% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $375k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Joint School District No. 2 (suburban): math 53% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #11 of 92 in ID (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Silver Sage Elementary School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #199 of 357 statewide, top 59%, 329 students, 45% FRL); Lake Hazel Middle School (math 46% / reading 64%, grade B-, #17 of 109 statewide, top 16%, 1,065 students, 29% FRL); Mountain View High School (math 42% / reading 72%, grade C, #21 of 169 statewide, top 13%, 2,462 students, 16% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 303 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 5,129 units permitted in Ada County in 2024 (414 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ada County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.6% in Boise City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,750/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($93k/yr) (locally 569% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.