205 Sfc 776

Madison, AR 72335

$30,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,179/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $724/mo
• Annual: $8,693/yr
• Cap rate: 35.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 103.49%
• DSCR: 5.60
• 1% rule: 3.93%
• Cash to close: $8,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $724 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $29k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#307 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Forrest City School District (town): math 12% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #230 of 238 in AR (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 93% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in St. Francis County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Francis County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.