1611 Ferry St

Metropolis, IL 62960

$64,900C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Built 1940 · Other · Active · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $821/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax + insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$172
• Net cashflow: $202/mo
• Annual: $2,424/yr
• Cap rate: 10.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.34%
• DSCR: 1.59
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $18,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $65k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $202 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($821 rent vs $65k).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $61k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#217 in IL, #4,091 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F, employment D-.
• Massac UD 1 (rural): math 24% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #318 of 620 in IL (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Metropolis Elem School (math 11% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,362 of 2,056 statewide, top 66%, 484 students, 0% FRL); Massac Jr High School (math 25% / reading 36%, grade F, #241 of 665 statewide, top 37%, 244 students, 0% FRL); Massac County High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #397 of 693 statewide, top 61%, 583 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Massac County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Massac County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $65k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 5.3% in Metropolis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.