6 bd · 5.0 ba ·
4,780 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 15 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$11,900/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$6,762
Tax + insurance
−$2,149
HOA
−$55
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$2,499
Net cashflow
$435/mo
Annual
$5,217/yr
Cap rate
6.70%
Cash-on-cash
1.44%
DSCR
1.06
1% rule
0.92%
Cash to close
$361,052
Investor read
This is a 6-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $1.29M.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $435 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.19M (7.7% below list).
It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.27M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $1.19M (7.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $93k of equity ($9k loan paydown + $84k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#2 in TN, #2,317 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, cost of living F.
Williamson County (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #1 of 139 in TN (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Sunset Elementary School (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #60 of 952 statewide, top 7%, 623 students, 0% FRL); Fred J Page High School (math 17% / reading 69%, grade F, #20 of 332 statewide, top 6%, 1,284 students, 0% FRL).
Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,994 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (637 in 5+ unit buildings).
Williamson County population projected at +59% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (6.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $361k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$149k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.2% in Nolensville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-PGENVR70N4M434
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29