1550 Rory Lane Space 261

Simi Valley, CA 93063

$199,999F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,505/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$1,850
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$736
• Net cashflow: $-463/mo
• Annual: $-5,561/yr
• Cap rate: 3.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.93%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 1.75%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-463 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $133k (33.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $200k).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $133k (33.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#456 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute D-, cost of living F.
• Simi Valley Unified (suburban): math 36% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #170 of 517 in CA (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hollow Hills Elementary (math 54% / reading 68%, grade B, #222 of 1,571 statewide, top 14%, 637 students, 38% FRL); Valley View Middle (math 32% / reading 48%, grade F, #152 of 498 statewide, top 31%, 1,140 students, 39% FRL); Simi Valley High (math 38% / reading 57%, grade D, #384 of 1,170 statewide, top 33%, 1,935 students, 33% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 53% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 157 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,759 units permitted in Ventura County in 2024 (1,196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ventura County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($125k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.