310 Tarpon St

Kissimmee, FL 34744

$200,000C

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 972 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,842/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $268/mo
• Annual: $3,215/yr
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.74%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (7.9% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $184k (7.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#181 in FL, #2,841 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, employment D-.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Central Avenue Elementary School (math 28% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,943 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 584 students, 57% FRL); Denn John Middle School (math 28% / reading 30%, grade F, #479 of 571 statewide, top 84%, 873 students, 57% FRL); Osceola High School (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,391 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Osceola average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 563 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $19k; list at $200k implies a 958% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.5% in Kissimmee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.