291 E Fm 2558

Broaddus, TX 75929

$229,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,612 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Active · 274 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,251/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$405
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $-622/mo
• Annual: $-7,468/yr
• Cap rate: 3.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.60%
• DSCR: 0.48
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $64,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-622 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (47.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (45.6% below list).
• It's been on market 274 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $120k (47.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (9.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#844 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Broaddus ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #400 of 826 in TX (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in San Augustine County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Augustine County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 274 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.