51 Shelter Valley Rd

Newfield, NY 14867

$235,000C-

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,056 sqft · Built 1976 · MultiFamily · Active · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,374/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$577
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $66/mo
• Annual: $793/yr
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.21%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $65,800

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.8-bath units multifamily listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($793/yr) — positive. Per door: $33/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $235k).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $221k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Newfield Central School District (rural): math 32% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #517 of 590 in NY (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 382 units permitted in Tompkins County in 2024 (208 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tompkins County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $203k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.2% in Newfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.