301 W Ray Dr

Arnold Line, MS 39402

$180,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,576 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Active · 170 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,452/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $38/mo
• Annual: $462/yr
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.92%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $50,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($462/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (19.3% below list).
• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $145k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#9 in MS, #2,961 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, commute D+, employment D+.
• Lamar County School District (rural): math 48% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #18 of 130 in MS (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 499 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 45 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lamar County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $180k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.