2754 NW 196th St

Miami Gardens, FL 33056

$320,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,406 sqft · Built 1979 · Townhouse · Pending · 84 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,043/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax + insurance: −$238
• HOA: −$60
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$639
• Net cashflow: $428/mo
• Annual: $5,139/yr
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.74%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $89,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $320k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $428 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $304k (4.9% below list).
• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $301k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#338 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Brentwood Elementary School (math 32% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,787 of 2,144 statewide, top 84%, 428 students, 82% FRL); Carol City Middle School (math 32% / reading 34%, grade F, #437 of 571 statewide, top 77%, 453 students, 76% FRL); Miami Carol City Senior High (math 8% / reading 16%, grade F, #622 of 667 statewide, top 93%, 804 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 64% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Miami-Dade average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 113 active listings in the ZIP; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $320k implies a 828% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.1% in Miami Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,043/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 1192% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.