31 E Water St

Gettysburg, PA 17325

$225,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 1982 · Other · Active · 84 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$443
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-201/mo
• Annual: $-2,412/yr
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.56%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-201 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (20.0% below list).
• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $180k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#45 in PA, #253 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: housing C-, employment D.
• Gettysburg Area SD (rural): math 46% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #132 of 539 in PA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Gettys El Sch (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B-, #377 of 1,518 statewide, top 28%, 331 students, 47% FRL); Gettysburg Area Ms (math 28% / reading 60%, grade D, #202 of 512 statewide, top 40%, 682 students, 43% FRL); Gettysburg Area Hs (math 80% / reading 24%, grade C-, #112 of 437 statewide, top 26%, 1,024 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 320 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 403 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Adams County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $186k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.3% in Gettysburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.