11511 State Route 26

Lake Delta, NY 13303

$149,900C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,070 sqft · Built 1830 · SingleFamily · Pending · 106 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,307/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $85/mo
• Annual: $1,017/yr
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.42%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (12.8% below list).
• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Adirondack Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #426 of 590 in NY (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1830 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $150k implies a 488% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (6.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1830 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.