25 Hancock Dr Unit A

Crestwood Village, NJ 08759

$64,000B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · — sqft · Built — · MultiFamily · Active · 84 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,168/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$336
• Tax + insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$228
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $1,042/mo
• Annual: $12,506/yr
• Cap rate: 25.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 69.79%
• DSCR: 4.11
• 1% rule: 3.39%
• Cash to close: $17,920

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $64k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $64k).
• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($60k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $60k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $442 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#422 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $64k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 25.8% vs local median 5.6% in Crestwood Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.