4822 NW 16th St

Ocala, FL 34482

$304,990F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,821 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,327/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,189
• Tax + insurance: −$696
• HOA: −$46
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $-1,093/mo
• Annual: $-13,118/yr
• Cap rate: 3.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.22%
• DSCR: 0.50
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $116,900

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (15.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (23.7% below list).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $233k (23.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: College Park Elementary School (math 46% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,437 of 2,144 statewide, top 68%, 840 students, 78% FRL); Dunnellon Middle School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D, #310 of 571 statewide, top 56%, 678 students, 68% FRL); West Port High School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,906 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 66% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.1%/yr); 670 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.2% vs local median 4.1% in Ocala — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.