2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,698 sqft ·
Built 1960
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 28 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,400/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,870
Tax + insurance
−$661
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$924
Net cashflow
$945/mo
Annual
$11,344/yr
Cap rate
9.70%
Cash-on-cash
12.16%
DSCR
1.54
1% rule
1.23%
Cash to close
$99,842
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $945 ($11k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $225k).
It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $222k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $17k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#796 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Crystal River Primary School (math 45% / reading 55%, grade D+, #1,070 of 2,144 statewide, top 51%, 654 students, 70% FRL); Crystal River Middle School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade C-, #286 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 900 students, 64% FRL); Crystal River High School (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 1,249 students, 56% FRL).
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $100k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 5.1% in Inglis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 5 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29