5517 16th Pl

Lubbock, TX 79416

$199,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,139 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Active · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,818/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$354
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $34/mo
• Annual: $409/yr
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.73%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($409/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (9.0% below list).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $182k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hardwick El (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 574 students, 81% FRL); Mackenzie Middle (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 515 students, 88% FRL); Coronado H S (math 34% / reading 38%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,960 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 60% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 466 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.