15303 Bellflower Ln

Urbandale, IA 50323

$324,900D

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,787 sqft · Built 2026 · Other · Active · 132 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,210/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$542
• HOA: −$175
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-674/mo
• Annual: $-8,094/yr
• Cap rate: 3.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.90%
• DSCR: 0.60
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $90,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath other listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-674 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (30.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (32.0% below list).
• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $221k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 90/100 on livability (#4 in IA, #69 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F.
• Waukee Community School District (suburban): math 80% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #14 of 289 in IA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Walnut Hills Elementary School (math 91% / reading 81%, grade A+, #26 of 616 statewide, top 4%, 625 students, 9% FRL); Waukee Middle School (math 83% / reading 81%, grade A+, #22 of 246 statewide, top 12%, 1,069 students, 12% FRL); Waukee High School (math 74% / reading 82%, grade A-, #53 of 336 statewide, top 16%, 1,268 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 15% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 381 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,503 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (630 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dallas County population projected at +74% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $126k; list at $325k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 2.4% in Urbandale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($176k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.