7506 Carver Ave

Texas City, TX 77591

$174,000F

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,162 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,554/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax + insurance: −$357
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $-42/mo
• Annual: $-503/yr
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.03%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $48,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $174k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-503/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (10.7% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $155k (10.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Texas City ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #655 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Simms El (math 23% / reading 24%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 475 students, 89% FRL); La Marque H S (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,342 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 647 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 66% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 240 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.3% in Texas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.